Global economic development
In our plans, we assume that the global economy will grow slightly faster in 2015 than in the reporting period. We anticipate that the emerging economies of Asia will record the highest growth rates. We expect to see signs of recovery in the economies of the major industrialized nations, though the rates of expansion will remain moderate.
We believe that the global economy will continue growing in the period 2016 to 2019.
In Western Europe, the economic recovery is expected to continue in 2015. However, the upturn remains contingent on structural problems being resolved.
The situation of the economies in Central and Eastern Europe should remain stable, depending on how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine evolves. We expect clearly negative growth in the Russian economy in 2015.
In 2015, the South African economy will probably continue to suffer the effects of political uncertainty and social tensions resulting primarily from high unemployment levels, though the pace of growth should nevertheless accelerate somewhat once again there.
We are confident that Germany’s solid economic development will be sustained in 2015 at the prior-year level with stable growth rates. The situation in the labor market is also expected to remain positive.
We expect economic activity in North America to continue to pick up in 2015, with economic growth in the USA and Mexico gathering momentum compared with the prior year.
In Brazil, we anticipate that GDP growth will recover somewhat in 2015 compared with the previous year. Argentina’s economy may contract further in 2015 on account of the persistently high inflation and the muted business climate.
Economic growth in China is set to remain at a high level in 2015. We expect a year-on-year improvement in Japan’s GDP growth in 2015. In India, we estimate that following a recent slight improvement the pace of expansion will stabilize at around the 2014 level. Economic growth in the ASEAN region is set to see a slight improvement in 2015 compared with the previous year.