Trends in the markets for Power Engineering
We believe that in 2015, the power engineering segment will still have to contend with a difficult market environment in which the individual markets will develop at different rates.
In the shipbuilding market, we expect total order volumes to remain at the level of the previous year on account of the continuing overcapacity. We anticipate that the market volume of two-stroke engines, used in merchant shipping, will be slightly below the prior-year figure. In 2015, we expect to see sustained high demand for special-purpose ships such as LNG tankers, cruise ships and government vessels. By contrast, demand for ships for offshore applications is likely to recede slightly in 2015 as a consequence of the currently lower oil prices. The competitive pressure in shipbuilding will continue unabated.
Growth in the power generation market will be mainly determined by macroeconomic developments in the emerging economies. As growth in key developing countries and emerging markets is slow at present, we expect demand in 2015 to remain on a level with the previous year if the competitive pressure persists. In the medium and long term, the outlook is still encouraging, however. Global population growth and the burgeoning demand for energy are generating continuous demand for power plant solutions. The trends towards more decentralized energy supplies and natural gas-fired power plants are continuing undiminished.
In the processing industry and in the oil and gas industry, we are forecasting a difficult market environment for 2015. Although investment levels will remain high in the medium term due to high demand for primary materials, weak economic growth in key regions is curbing the processing industry’s willingness to invest. Investment activity in the oil and gas industry will experience a noticeable decline in 2015 as a result of the currently low oil price. We therefore expect the number of new contracts awarded in 2015 to be at best on a level with the previous year, with no let-up in the price pressure.
The development of the offshore wind energy market in Germany is still fraught with uncertainty. A positive outlook is not expected until the infrastructural and political framework has been clarified, something that remains unclear for 2015. Going forward, sales opportunities could also emerge to a greater extent in other regions of the world.
We expect that the markets for power engineering will continue to record an increase in overall demand in the period 2016 to 2019.